January 2026 opens with condos for sale Victoria BC positioned at a strategic inflection point—balanced market conditions, stabilized pricing, and significant inventory providing sophisticated buyers and sellers unprecedented opportunity to navigate without competitive frenzy or seasonal desperation. October 2025 data confirmed condo benchmark pricing at $551,000 (up 0.6% year-over-year) despite October condo sales declining 15% from October 2024, revealing a market undergoing healthy maturation rather than crisis deterioration. Real estate expert Andrew Hrushowy emphasizes that this apparent contradiction—declining sales combined with modest price appreciation—indicates inventory normalization, buyer selectivity, and pricing equilibrium supporting fair transactions for both demographics entering 2026. This comprehensive market update examines current condo conditions, identifies emerging opportunities, and provides strategic positioning enabling confident decision-making aligned with January 2026 realities.​​

Understanding late-2025 condo dynamics and emerging 2026 trends enables market participants to capitalize on advantages while avoiding common pitfalls in rebalancing market conditions.

Key Takeaways

• October 2025 condo sales: 159 units, down 15% year-over-year reflecting seasonal slowdown and comparison to abnormally strong October 2024; Victoria Core condo benchmark: $551,000, up 0.6% YoY despite sales decline.​
• Active listings in Victoria VREB region: 3,423 total (up 8.3% YoY); approximately 396 condos for sale Victoria BC currently available with median list price $550K and range $60K–$5.5M.​
• Sales-to-active-listing ratio: 10% (significantly below balanced market 17%), signaling buyer’s market with reduced competition and extended negotiation timelines favoring purchasers.​
• 2026 forecast: Gradual condo market rebound expected through year with modest appreciation (0.5–2% range); balanced market projected closer to 2027–2028 as supply and demand equilibrate.​​
• Andrew Hrushowy identifies January–March 2026 window as optimal opportunity for strategic condo buyers and sellers willing to leverage market intelligence and disciplined positioning.

Overview

Condos for sale Victoria BC market enters 2026 from position of buyer advantage combined with price stability—unusual market configuration rewarding informed strategy and professional guidance. Andrew Hrushowy’s analysis reveals that October 2025 patterns—elevated inventory, restrained sales, stable pricing—create environment where buyers negotiate effectively, sellers require strategic positioning, and investors identify cash-flow opportunities transcending short-term appreciation speculation. This pillar blog synthesizes current market conditions, extracts strategic implications, and provides comprehensive guidance supporting confident condo market navigation through 2026.​​

Market Dynamics: Understanding October 2025 Condo Performance

Sales Decline Context: Seasonal Adjustment vs. Trend Deterioration

October 2025 condo sales of 159 units declined 15% year-over-year; however, Andrew Hrushowy emphasizes context prevents misinterpretation as market collapse. October 2024 represented unusually strong month (187 condo sales) following summer peak; October 2025 decline reflects normalization toward sustainable activity levels rather than trend deterioration. Historical pattern shows October typically eases from summer peaks; therefore, 159 units actually represents reasonable autumn activity within normal market cycles.​

Comparing October 2025 to broader 2025 condo performance reveals context: June 2025 saw 249 condo sales (23.3% surge YoY); July maintained momentum with strong condo activity; August-September showed moderation entering autumn season. This seasonal rhythm—spring/summer peaks, autumn secondary surge, winter slowdown—remains predictable market characteristic enabling strategic timing rather than panic about individual months.​

Andrew Hrushowy advises market observers that October’s 15% decline reflects expected seasonal adjustment combined with strong 2024 comparison rather than fundamental market deterioration, supporting confidence in underlying condo market fundamentals heading into 2026.

Price Stability Despite Sales Decline: Fundamental Market Strength

October 2025 Victoria Core condo benchmark of $551,000 represented 0.6% appreciation from October 2024 ($547,800) despite concurrent 15% sales decline, confirming pricing resilience through market rebalancing. This counter-intuitive pattern—falling sales paired with rising prices—indicates supply adjustment and buyer selectivity rather than capitulation.​

Andrew Hrushowy identifies that price stability amid declining sales suggests:

• Quality condo inventory remains sought after despite overall sales slowdown
• Pricing adjustments have eliminated most over-priced listings from active inventory
• Buyers are more selective, purchasing only genuinely valued properties
• Downward pricing pressure exists but remains contained within modest range

Comparing across 2025: September condo benchmark ($547,500) versus October ($551,000) showed modest month-over-month appreciation, confirming price support throughout late-year period despite reduced transaction velocity. This pricing resilience contradicts fears of condo market collapse, supporting bullish positioning for buyers understanding market fundamentals.

Inventory Normalization: Building Selection Without Desperation

October 2025 active listings in Victoria VREB region reached 3,423 (up 8.3% from 3,161 in October 2024), creating normalized supply enabling buyer selection without feverish competition. Current condos for sale Victoria BC inventory approximately 396 units, representing abundance within Victoria proper while total listing count reflects broader VREB region including surrounding communities.​

Andrew Hrushowy notes that elevated inventory serves buyers significantly:

• Extended evaluation periods enabling thorough due diligence without time pressure
• Negotiation flexibility on price, conditions, and possession timing
• Reduced multiple-offer situations replacing spring-season bidding wars
• Better geographic representation within available properties enabling preference matching

Inventory normalization proves particularly valuable for first-time buyers and downsizers; previous hot markets (spring/summer 2024) often eliminated choice-making advantages through scarcity-driven urgency. Current conditions enable thoughtful positioning where property fit, community alignment, and financial optimization transcend speed-driven decisions.

Sales-to-Listing Ratio Analysis: Buyer Market Confirmation

10% Ratio Signals Clear Buyer Advantage

October 2025 sales-to-active-listing ratio of 10% (159 sales divided by 3,423 listings approximates monthly supply multiplier) sits substantially below balanced market benchmark of 17%. This significant divergence confirms buyer’s market characteristics:​

• Below 10% (Strong Buyer’s Market): Extended negotiation timelines (60–90 days common), significant price negotiation room, flexible terms accommodation
• 10–17% (Balanced Market): Fair pricing, reasonable timelines (30–45 days), moderate negotiation room
• Above 17% (Seller’s Market): Multiple offers, faster sales, premium pricing, limited negotiation flexibility

October 2025 sits squarely within strong buyer’s market territory, rewarding prepared buyers with leverage transcending single-transaction timeframe. Andrew Hrushowy emphasizes that buyers entering January 2026 inherit this buyer’s market advantage with minimal competition compared to spring/summer seasons.

Strategic Implications for Buyer Positioning

This ratio configuration enables strategic buyer approaches unavailable in balanced/seller markets:

• Extended Decision Timelines: Buyers can invest weeks in property inspection, evaluation, and neighborhood exploration without risk of competing offers
• Negotiation Flexibility: Price, conditions, inspection contingencies, and possession timing all negotiable without seller leverage pressure
• Market Research Advantage: Studying comparable sales and property valuation requires minimal time constraint, enabling informed offer positioning
• Building-Specific Positioning: Buyers can identify problematic strata records, special assessments, or amenity challenges requiring seller consideration

Andrew Hrushowy advises prepared condo buyers to leverage this ratio advantage through comprehensive evaluation processes ensuring long-term satisfaction transcending short-term transaction mechanics.

Price Analysis and Valuation Trends

Benchmark Performance and Market Appreciation

October 2025 condo benchmark of $551,000 (up 0.6% from October 2024) confirmed modest but positive pricing trajectory through 2025, with annual appreciation tracking below single-family homes (up 2.9%) but above broader market softening concerns.​

Breaking down 2025 condo performance:

• January 2025: Market stabilizing following 2024 peaks
• May 2025: Strong demand period (249 sales) supporting pricing confidence
• June 2025: Continued strength (23.3% sales surge YoY)
• September 2025: Benchmark softening to $547,500 (down from August)
• October 2025: Recovery to $551,000 (+0.6% YoY) confirming price floor

Andrew Hrushowy identifies this pattern—modest mid-year appreciation, brief September softening, October recovery—as healthy market maturation replacing artificial bubble dynamics of earlier cycles. Current pricing at $550K median represents fair-value equilibrium supporting confident purchases without fear of imminent corrections.

Victoria Core Performance: Downtown and Central Focus

Victoria Core (downtown, James Bay, Fairfield, Rockland neighborhood condos) represents primary benchmark tracking and most relevant for downtown-focused buyers. The Core’s 0.6% appreciation appears modest compared to single-family 2.9% appreciation; however, Andrew Hrushowy explains:

• Single-family homes benefit from limited land supply and strong family-buyer demographic
• Condos face greater supply through conversion projects and new construction
• Short-term rental registry changes affecting condo rental income (potentially reducing investor demand temporarily)
• Market normalization from artificially tight 2023–2024 conditions

2026 forecast expects continued modest condo appreciation (0.5–2.0% range) as supply and demand equilibrate, supporting stable pricing environment without dramatic appreciation expectations.​​

Neighborhood and Building-Specific Market Variations

Downtown and Core Strength: James Bay, Fairfield, Rockland

Downtown Victoria and immediately adjacent neighborhoods remain strongest condo markets, attracting downsizers, empty-nesters, urban lifestyle enthusiasts, and investment buyers seeking walkable communities. Andrew Hrushowy identifies these neighborhoods as maintaining pricing resilience:

• James Bay: Historic waterfront community, walkable downtown access, strong cultural identity
• Fairfield: Established residential character, local shopping, family-friendly parks
• Rockland: Heritage homes mixed with condo opportunities, upscale neighborhood positioning
• Downtown Core: Urban living, restaurants, entertainment, employment proximity

These neighborhoods maintained stronger 2025 pricing compared to suburban alternatives, attracting buyers willing to pay premium for walkability and community character.

Suburban and Emerging Opportunities: Langford, View Royal, Saanich

Suburban communities show greater inventory abundance and price-conscious buyer concentration, offering value alternatives for those deprioritizing downtown convenience. Andrew Hrushowy identifies emerging opportunities:

• Langford/Westshore: New construction condos competing through contemporary amenities and modern design
• View Royal: Mid-range pricing ($450K–$600K) attracting families and downsizers
• Saanich: Family-focused areas with school proximity, community amenities, recreational access
• Esquimalt: Emerging value proposition particularly for first-time buyers

These suburban communities offer extended inventory selection, negotiation leverage, and affordability compared to downtown Core pricing, supporting different buyer objectives and financial situations.

Strata Quality Differentiation: Critical Buyer Consideration

Andrew Hrushowy emphasizes that October 2025 buyer’s market enables detailed strata evaluation impossible during competitive spring seasons. Condo selection increasingly depends on building-specific factors:

• Strata Reserve Funds: Strong reserves ($5,000+ per unit) versus underfunded reserve problems
• Special Assessments: History of major assessments indicating building infrastructure challenges
• Rental Restrictions: Buildings allowing rentals versus owner-occupied requirements affecting resale flexibility
• Amenity Quality: Contemporary upgrades (gym, lounge, EV charging) versus aging facility concerns
• Management Stability: Professional property management versus owner-operated complications

Elevated inventory enables buyers to compare buildings directly, prioritizing buildings with strong fundamentals over marginal properties offering modest price discounts but requiring strata cost complications.

Buyer Demographics and Segmentation Analysis

First-Time Buyers: Mid-Market Entry Opportunity

First-time buyers represent significant condo market demographic, typically targeting $450K–$650K range for 1–2 bedroom units with move-in-ready condition. October 2025 buyer’s market conditions particularly benefit this segment:

• Affordability Window: Stable pricing near $550K median supports first-time buyer targets without escalation pressure
• Reduced Competition: Fewer multiple-offer situations enable victory without overbidding scenarios
• Negotiation Leverage: Flexible terms (closing dates, conditions, inspections) more negotiable
• Extended Search Timeline: Time to educate self about neighborhoods, building quality, long-term value

Andrew Hrushowy advises first-time buyers to leverage January–March 2026 window for decisive action, as spring market surge (March–May typical) will introduce renewed competition and pricing pressure. Early 2026 timing maximizes buyer advantage window.

Downsizers and Retirees: Amenity and Walkability Focus

Retirement-age downsizers targeting 1–2 bedroom condos emphasize walkability, low-maintenance properties, and amenity-rich communities enabling social engagement. October 2025 conditions support this demographic through:

• Building Selection: Elevated inventory enables choosing buildings emphasizing community programs, fitness facilities, and management professionalism
• Pricing Certainty: Stable $550K pricing enables confident financial planning and capital deployment
• Negotiation Time: Extended timelines support detailed community integration planning rather than rushed purchases

Communities emphasizing walkability and retiree-friendly amenities (Sidney, Parksville, Brentwood Bay, downtown Victoria) show particular strength attracting affluent downsizers willing to pay premium for lifestyle alignment.

Investment Buyers: Cash Flow Focus Over Appreciation

Investor demographic expects to shift 2026 focus from appreciation speculation toward cash-flow fundamentals, requiring realistic rental income assessment and long-term hold timelines. Andrew Hrushowy identifies investor opportunities:

• Multi-Unit Properties: Duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes offering diversified income streams
• Purpose-Built Rentals: Buildings emphasizing rental infrastructure, experienced management, healthy rent growth
• Value-Add Positioning: Properties requiring cosmetic improvements enabling below-market acquisition pricing with renovation equity
• Long-Term Cash Flow: Properties generating 3–5% annual cash-on-cash returns supporting multi-year hold strategy

For comprehensive investment property exploration and strategy, visit our hobby farms for sale in Cowichan Valley and farms for sale on Vancouver Island guides providing rural investment context.

Strategic 2026 Positioning and Timeline

January–March 2026: Buyer Advantage Window

Early 2026 represents optimal buyer positioning window before spring market surge reintroduces competition. Andrew Hrushowy recommends:

• Buyer Action: Execute purchase decisions while buyer’s market advantage remains peak (January–February strongest)
• Pre-Approval Timing: Secure mortgage pre-approval immediately enabling rapid offer execution when suitable properties appear
• Neighborhood Research: Invest weeks in community exploration, building tour, strata review while timelines permit
• Negotiation Strategy: Leverage lower competition for favorable terms and conditions beyond price alone

April–June 2026: Spring Market Surge

Traditional spring market surge (April–June) expected to reintroduce competition as sidelined buyers re-enter and spring season psychological impact drives activity. Andrew Hrushowy projects:

• Inventory Reduction: Limited new listings compared to early-year supply
• Increased Competition: Multiple-offer situations returning as buyer activity surges
• Pricing Pressure: Spring momentum supporting seller negotiation positioning
• Compressed Timelines: Rushed decision-making replacing extended evaluation periods

Early spring positioning (January–March decisions executed) provides advantage versus April-June buyers competing in compressed market conditions.

July–December 2026: Summer Moderation and Fall Secondary Surge

Summer moderation (July–August) and autumn secondary surge (September–October) follow predictable patterns, with winter approaching creating seasonal slowdown. Andrew Hrushowy advises:

• Mid-Year Reset: Market stabilizes around $550K–$560K pricing (slight appreciation from early-year)
• Autumn Re-engagement: Back-to-school and holiday-season psychological drivers create secondary surge
• Winter Positioning: Seasonal slowdown approaching (November–December) creating year-end buyer leverage opportunity

Ready to strategically navigate condos for sale Victoria BC and capitalize on 2026 opportunities? Andrew Hrushowy—with comprehensive condo market expertise, building-specific knowledge, and strategic positioning guidance—enables confident decision-making aligned with market conditions and personal objectives. Contact Andrew Hrushowy at 755 Humboldt St, Victoria, BC V8W 1B1 or call (250) 383-1500 for detailed market analysis, condo evaluation, and strategic positioning guidance.

For comprehensive property exploration and regional insights, explore our real estate on the Saanich Peninsula, December 2025 market update, and community spotlight Vancouver Island guides providing broader context and investment opportunities.

FAQs

Q: Is January 2026 a good time to buy a condo in Victoria?
A: Yes—buyer’s market conditions with 10% sales-to-listing ratio, abundant inventory, and stable $550K pricing provide unprecedented negotiation advantage and selection without competitive frenzy.

Q: Will condo prices decline further in 2026?
A: No—October 2025 pricing of $551,000 shows +0.6% YoY appreciation; 2026 forecast projects 0.5–2.0% continued appreciation, not decline. Current pricing represents fair-value equilibrium.

Q: Should I wait for spring 2026 or buy now?
A: Buy now (January–March window)—early 2026 offers peak buyer advantage with minimal competition; spring market surge will reintroduce multiple offers and pricing pressure.

Q: Which neighborhoods are strongest for condo appreciation potential?
A: Downtown Victoria, James Bay, Fairfield, and Rockland maintain strongest pricing; suburban alternatives (Langford, Saanich) offer value appreciation potential as development continues.

Q: What should I evaluate before purchasing a Victoria condo?
A: Strata reserves (adequate funding), special assessment history, rental restrictions, building amenities, neighborhood walkability, and long-term condo market demand within specific building type.

Q: Is investing in Victoria condos for rental income viable in 2026?
A: Yes—focus on cash-flow fundamentals rather than appreciation speculation; multi-family properties and well-located downtown buildings show rental income resilience despite appreciation moderation.

Conclusion

Condos for sale Victoria BC enter 2026 positioned for sophisticated market participants willing to leverage current buyer’s market advantages toward confident outcomes. Andrew Hrushowy’s analysis confirms that October 2025 market dynamics—15% sales decline paired with 0.6% price appreciation, elevated inventory combined with buyer’s-market ratios, and broad 2026 forecasts projecting gradual rebound—create environment where informed strategy, building-specific evaluation, and disciplined positioning generate superior outcomes. 

January–March 2026 window represents peak opportunity for strategic condo buyers and positioned sellers understanding market fundamentals and willing to execute decisive action. Successful 2026 condo market navigation depends on understanding current conditions represent market maturation toward sustainable equilibrium rather than deterioration, supporting confident long-term decision-making aligned with personal objectives and financial goals.